Decoding Shell’s 2025 Capital Markets Day

Investor presentations are crafted to impress: bold claims, glossy slides, and ambitious targets. Shell’s 2025 Capital Markets Day (CMD) followed this playbook, but the real question is whether the company can actually deliver.

This analysis strips away the marketing polish and highlights the execution challenges that investors should keep front of mind.

Shell’s Big Promises for 2030

Shell outlined a strategy that seems neatly balanced on paper:

• LNG growth of 4–5% CAGR

• Liquids production held steady at ~1.4 million bpd

• Free cash flow growth of 6% absolute and 10% per share

• Aggressive shareholder returns via buybacks and dividends

It’s a package designed to reassure: gas drives growth, oil stays stable, cash flows rise, and investors get paid. But beneath the surface, delivery is far less straightforward.

Target 1: LNG Sales Growth (4 - 5% CAGR)

Shell plans to lift LNG sales from ~65 mtpa in 2025 to 79 - 83 mtpa by 2030. Projects in Canada, Nigeria, Qatar, and Ruwais could add ~12 mtpa, while Pavilion Energy agreements contribute another 6.5 mtpa.

The challenge:

• Legacy declines (e.g., North West Shelf) risk eroding gains.

• Timing pressure - many new projects only arrive late in the decade.

• Dependence on sales agreements - Pavilion adds volumes but without production control.

Bottom line: The math adds up, but flawless execution is required.

Target 2: Maintain Liquids Production (~1.4 million bpd)

Oil fields naturally decline. To offset this, Shell is banking on projects like Whale, Dover, Sabah, and the Bonga expansion, together adding ~158k boe/d.

The execution risks:

• New projects must ramp up on time.

• Older fields need to avoid faster than expected decline.

Reality check: Sustaining 1.4m bpd is less about growth and more about holding the line.

Target 3: Free Cash Flow Growth (6% Absolute, 10% Per Share)

Shell’s most ambitious claims center on cash flow:

• 6% absolute growth at a flat $65/bbl Brent.

• 10% per share growth, boosted by buybacks.

The drivers:

• LNG adds some uplift, but not enough to explain the target increase by 2030.

• Liquids are flat.

• Divestments are unlikely to repeat past $25B levels.

• Cost efficiencies are the main lever but much of the “easy” restructuring has already been done.

Takeaway: Absolute growth relies on squeezing more from existing assets, while the per share target is powered largely by buybacks, not operations.

Target 4: Buybacks & Shareholder Returns

Shell is promising:

• $20 - 23B per year in buybacks and dividends,

• plus $20 - 22B in CapEx

• implying a total of $40 - 45B annual cash commitment.

With 2024 CFFO at ~$55B, the buffer is slim. Any shortfall in cash generation could force tough trade-offs between growth spending and investor payouts.

Conclusion: Bold Goals, Fragile Execution

Shell’s 2025 CMD story is polished but precarious.

• LNG growth hinges on late-decade projects and legacy stability.

• Liquids output requires perfect execution to offset declines.

• Cash flow growth is fueled more by cost-cutting and buybacks than real expansion.

• Shareholder payouts leave little room for error.

Investor takeaway: Shell’s targets look achievable on paper but rest on a knife edge in practice. Execution risks, commodity volatility, and slim cash buffers mean investors should focus less on the glossy headlines and more on whether Shell delivers project by project.

👉 For the full deep dive including detailed analysis that led to our conclusions - Download Decoding Investor Day: Shell’s 2025 Capital Markets Day.